Now showing items 75-94 of 98

    • Petro Populism 

      Matsen, Egil; Natvik, Gisle J.; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We aim to explain petro populism|the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income politicians need to remain in office over time. Hence, even a rent-seeking ...
    • Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Bank Deposits in Tax Havens 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels; Lassen, David Dreyer; Paltseva, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that ...
    • Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time–Series 

      Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3, Working paper, 2018-02)
      Cryptocurrencies have recently gained a lot of interest from investors, central banks and governments worldwide. The lack of any form of political regu- lation and their market far from being “efficient”, require new forms ...
    • Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting 

      Iacopini, Matteo; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-01)
      This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, ...
    • Residential investment and recession predictability 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andr K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)
      We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ...
    • Residential investment and recession predictability 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andre K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)
      We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ...
    • Sectorial interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies 

      Bergholt, Drago; Sveen, Tommy (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Existing DSGE models are not able to reproduce the observed influence of international business cycles on small open economies. We construct a two-sector New Keynesian model to address this puzzle. The set-up takes into ...
    • Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds? 

      Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      Many natural-resource-abundant countries have established petroleum funds as part of their strategy to manage their resource wealth. This paper examines reasons that such funds may be established, discusses how these funds ...
    • Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models 

      Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Papers Series;4/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      In this paper we take three well known Sigma Point Filters, namely the Unscented Kalman Filter, the Divided Difference Filter, and the Cubature Kalman Filter, and extend them to allow for a very general class of dynamic ...
    • Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Rohrer, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We analyse if output exibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, we ask to what extent shale oil producers respond to price incentives by changing completion of new wells as well as oil ...
    • Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2019, Working paper, 2019-11-18)
      In two recent papers, Kilian and Zhou (2019) and Kilian (2019) have criticized Bjørnland, Nordvik, and Rohrer (2017), arguing that our finding of a large price elasticity of output for shale producers is not credible. We ...
    • The fiscal incentive of GHG cap and trade: Permits may be too cheap and developed countries may abate too little 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Greaker, Mads (Working paper, 2014)
      The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. ...
    • The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Greaker, Mads (CAMP Working Papers Series;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. However, ...
    • The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price 

      Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2018-04)
      I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply ...
    • The Political Economy of Public Income Volatility: With an Application to the Resource Curse 

      Robinson, James A.; Torvik, Ragnar; Verdier, Thierry (CAMP Working Papers Series;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We develop a model of the political consequences of public income volatility. As is standard, political incentives create inefficient policies, but we show that making income uncertain creates specific new effects. Future ...
    • The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 8/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-16)
      We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks in the U.S. economy has changed as a result of the shale oil boom. To do so we allow for spillovers at the state level, as well as aggregate country level effects. We ...
    • The Value of News 

      Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ...
    • The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ...
    • Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia 

      Cross, Jamie; Zhang, Bo; Guo, Na (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2020, Working paper, 2020-11-18)
      We investigate whether a class of trend models with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result ...
    • Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts 

      Krüger, Fabian; Clark, Todd E.; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      This paper shows entropic tilting to be a flexible and powerful tool for combining mediumterm forecasts from BVARs with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting ...