Blar i Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP) på tittel
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Residential investment and recession predictability
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ... -
Residential investment and recession predictability
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ... -
Risky news and credit market sentiment
(CAMP Working Paper Series;14/2023, Working paper, 2023-12-14)The nonlinear nexus between financial conditions indicators and the conditional distribution of GDP growth has recently been challenged. We show how one can use textual economic news combined with a shallow Neural Network ... -
The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil
(CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2021, Working paper, 2021-11-01)Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand as a composite shock, known as storage demand shocks, due to difficulties in identifying these distinct ... -
Sectorial interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)Existing DSGE models are not able to reproduce the observed influence of international business cycles on small open economies. We construct a two-sector New Keynesian model to address this puzzle. The set-up takes into ... -
Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds?
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2017, Working paper, 2017)Many natural-resource-abundant countries have established petroleum funds as part of their strategy to manage their resource wealth. This paper examines reasons that such funds may be established, discusses how these funds ... -
Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models
(CAMP Working Papers Series;4/2015, Working paper, 2015)In this paper we take three well known Sigma Point Filters, namely the Unscented Kalman Filter, the Divided Difference Filter, and the Cubature Kalman Filter, and extend them to allow for a very general class of dynamic ... -
Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2017, Working paper, 2017)We analyse if output exibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, we ask to what extent shale oil producers respond to price incentives by changing completion of new wells as well as oil ... -
Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2019, Working paper, 2019-11-18)In two recent papers, Kilian and Zhou (2019) and Kilian (2019) have criticized Bjørnland, Nordvik, and Rohrer (2017), arguing that our finding of a large price elasticity of output for shale producers is not credible. We ... -
Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2024, Working paper, 2024-05-07)The Fed’s policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to ... -
The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little
(CAMP Working Papers Series;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. However, ... -
The fiscal incentive of GHG cap and trade: Permits may be too cheap and developed countries may abate too little
(Working paper, 2014)The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. ... -
The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2018-04)I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply ... -
The Political Economy of Public Income Volatility: With an Application to the Resource Curse
(CAMP Working Papers Series;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)We develop a model of the political consequences of public income volatility. As is standard, political incentives create inefficient policies, but we show that making income uncertain creates specific new effects. Future ... -
The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 8/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-16)We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks in the U.S. economy has changed as a result of the shale oil boom. To do so we allow for spillovers at the state level, as well as aggregate country level effects. We ... -
The Value of News
(CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2015, Working paper, 2015)We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ... -
The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ... -
Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia
(CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2020, Working paper, 2020-11-18)We investigate whether a class of trend models with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result ... -
Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
(CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-13)We present a new stylized fact about the link between uncertainty and the term structure of interest rates: Unexpectedly heightened uncertainty elicits a lower, steeper, and flatter yield curve. This result is established ... -
Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations
(CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2024, Working paper, 2024-07-05)This paper demonstrates that inflation expectations have acted as significant amplifiers of recent global demand and supply shocks, thereby playing a crucial role in maintaining inflation at relatively high levels. This ...