• A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models 

      Canova, Fabio; Matthes, Christian (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 10/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-08)
      We describe how to use the composite likelihood to ameliorate estimation, computational, and inferential problems in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We present a number of situations where the methodology ...
    • A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency 

      Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-12)
      This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the economic repercussions of cryptocurrency. We assume that cryptocurrency offers an alternative currency option to government currency ...
    • A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Vespignani, Joaquin L. (CAMP Working Papers Series;2/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely ...
    • Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility 

      Chang, Yoosoon; Durlauf, Steven N.; Hu, Bo; Park, Joon Y. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2024, Working paper, 2024-02-21)
      This paper proposes a fully nonparametric model to investigate the dynamics of intergenerational income mobility. In our model, an individual’s income class probabilities depend on parental income in a manner that accommodates ...
    • Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures 

      Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo; Matthes, Christian (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      The paper studies how parameter variation affects the decision rules of a DSGE model and structural inference. We provide diagnostics to detect parameter variations and to ascertain whether they are exogenous or endogenous. ...
    • Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Non-Fundamentalness 

      Canova, Fabio; Sahneh, Mehdi Hamidi (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      Non-fundamentalness arises when observables do not contain enough information to recover the vector of structural shocks. Using Granger causality tests, the literature suggested that many small scale VAR models are ...
    • Asset returns, news topics and media effects 

      Høghaug Larsen, Vegard; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP;5, Working paper, 2017-09-19)
      We decompose the textual data in a daily Norwegian business newspaper into news topics and investigate their predictive and causal role for asset prices. Our three main findings are: (1) a one unit innovation in the news ...
    • Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, André K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2017-12)
      The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends both on the nature of the shock – expansionary versus contractionary – and on city-specific housing supply elasticities. We test and find supporting ...
    • A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency 

      Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2023, Working paper, 2023-09-21)
      We develop and estimate a DSGE model to evaluate the economic repercussions of cryptocurrency. In our model, cryptocurrency offers an alternative currency option to government currency, with endogenous supply and demand. ...
    • Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Labonne, Paul; Van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;11/2023, Working paper, 2023-06-27)
      Detecting heterogeneity within a population is crucial in many economic and financial applications. Econometrically, this requires a credible determination of multimodality in a given data distribution. We propose a ...
    • Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19 

      Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Larsen, Erling Røed; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-17)
      We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and bid-by-bid auction data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lock-down on March 12, and the ...
    • Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productiv- ity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian ...
    • Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. ...
    • Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A Scandinavian Perspective 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jensen, Malin C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;15/2023, Working paper, 2023-12-21)
      We use a unique daily economic activity measure and manually audited nonpharmaceutical intervention indexes for Norway and Sweden to model the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, policy, health, and business cycles within ...
    • Business cycle narratives 

      Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6, Working paper, 2018-04)
      This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ...
    • Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno; Anundsen, André (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2019, Working paper, 2019-06-18)
      Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have ...
    • China’s Savings Multiplier 

      Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar; Valente, Simone (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      China’s growth is characterized by massive capital accumulation, made possible by high and increasing domestic savings. In this paper we develop a model with the aim of explaining why savings rates have been high and ...
    • Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies 

      Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2020, Working paper, 2020-12-03)
      The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ...
    • Commodity Futures and Forecasting Commodity Currencies 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Sveen, Tommy; Zahiri, Sepideh K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      This paper analyzes the extent to which information in commodity futures markets is useful for out-of-sample forecasting of commodity currencies. In the earlier literature, commodity price changes are documented to be weak ...
    • Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We analyse if the adoption of a fiscal spending rule insulates the domestic economy from commodity price fluctuations in a resource-rich economy. To do so we develop a time-varying Dynamic Factor Model, in which we allow ...