Now showing items 118-130 of 130

    • The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price 

      Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2018-04)
      I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply ...
    • The Political Economy of Public Income Volatility: With an Application to the Resource Curse 

      Robinson, James A.; Torvik, Ragnar; Verdier, Thierry (CAMP Working Papers Series;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We develop a model of the political consequences of public income volatility. As is standard, political incentives create inefficient policies, but we show that making income uncertain creates specific new effects. Future ...
    • The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 8/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-16)
      We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks in the U.S. economy has changed as a result of the shale oil boom. To do so we allow for spillovers at the state level, as well as aggregate country level effects. We ...
    • The Value of News 

      Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ...
    • The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ...
    • Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia 

      Cross, Jamie; Zhang, Bo; Guo, Na (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2020, Working paper, 2020-11-18)
      We investigate whether a class of trend models with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result ...
    • Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Poon, Aubrey; Zhu, Dan (CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-13)
      We present a new stylized fact about the link between uncertainty and the term structure of interest rates: Unexpectedly heightened uncertainty elicits a lower, steeper, and flatter yield curve. This result is established ...
    • Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts 

      Krüger, Fabian; Clark, Todd E.; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      This paper shows entropic tilting to be a flexible and powerful tool for combining mediumterm forecasts from BVARs with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting ...
    • Voting When the Stakes Are High 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Fiva, Jon H.; Natvik, Gisle J. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Most theories of voter behavior predict that electoral participation will be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction by studying how participation is affected by exogenous variation in local ...
    • What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ...
    • Where do they care? The ECB in the media and inflation expectations 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; Pagenhardt, Laura (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2023, Working paper, 2023-05-10)
      This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, ...
    • Why Do Voters Dismantle Checks and Balances? Extensions and Robustness. (Online appendix) 

      Acemoglu, Daron; Robinson, James A.; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      In this online appendix we extend the basic model in the paper in several directions, discuss the robustness of the results, and moreover what new mechanisms our extensions implies as compared to the ones in the basic model.
    • Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles 

      Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      In this paper I construct a daily business cycle index based on quarterly GDP and textual information contained in a daily business newspaper. The newspaper data is decomposed into time series representing newspaper topics ...