• Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies 

  Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Casarin, Roberto; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;13/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-21)

  We analyse fiscal policy in resource-rich economies using a novel Bayesian regime-switching panel model. The identified regimes capture pro- or countercyclical fiscal behaviour, while the switches between the regimes have ...

• Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates 

  Cross, Jamie L.; Poon, Aubrey; Zhu, Dan (CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-13)

  We present a new stylized fact about the link between uncertainty and the term structure of interest rates: Unexpectedly heightened uncertainty elicits a lower, steeper, and flatter yield curve. This result is established ...

• Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies 

  Terrell, Madison; Haque, Qazi; Cross, Jamie L.; Tchatoka, Firmin Doko (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2023, Working paper, 2023-06-29)

  This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy shocks and real exchange rates in several small open economies. To that end, we develop a novel identification strategy for time-varying structural vector ...

• Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance 

  Cross, Jamie L.; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Labonne, Paul; Van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;11/2023, Working paper, 2023-06-27)

  Detecting heterogeneity within a population is crucial in many economic and financial applications. Econometrically, this requires a credible determination of multimodality in a given data distribution. We propose a ...

• A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency 

  Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2023, Working paper, 2023-09-21)

  We develop and estimate a DSGE model to evaluate the economic repercussions of cryptocurrency. In our model, cryptocurrency offers an alternative currency option to government currency, with endogenous supply and demand. ...

• Augmented self - The effects of virtual face augmentation on consumers' self-concept 

  Javornik, Ana; Marder, Ben; Pizzetti, Marta; Warlop, Luk (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)

  Augmented reality mirrors are popular marketing tools that allow virtual try-on of products, such as makeup. We study how such sensory experiences affect consumer perception of the self, specifically the gap between actual ...

• The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market 

  Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L.; Kapfhammer, Felix (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2023, Working paper, 2023-09-17)

  This paper studies the drivers of emission reductions in the carbon market of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. We introduce a novel empirical framework that facilitates the ...

• The interplay between monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy 

  Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2023, Working paper, 2023-08)

  We develop a theory for the optimal interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. While one might initially think that monetary and fiscal policy should pull in the same direction, we show within a simple model that this ...

• Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk 

  Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2023, Working paper, 2023-08-03)

  We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence ...

• Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis 

  Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2023, Working paper, 2023-08-03)

  This paper extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. By means of synthetic and real data experiments it is ...

• Where do they care? The ECB in the media and inflation expectations 

  Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò; Pagenhardt, Laura (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2023, Working paper, 2023-05-10)

  This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, ...

• Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach 

  Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Chang, Yoosoon; Cross, Jamie L. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2023, Working paper, 2023-03-13)

  This paper proposes a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR) model to examine the relationship between aggregate time series and functional variables in a multivariate setting. The model facilitates a re examination of the ...

• Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring 

  Chang, Yoosoon; Herrera, Ana María; Pesavento, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2023, Working paper, 2023-02-27)

  Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful ...

• The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes 

  Kapfhammer, Felix (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2023, Working paper, 2023-01)

  This paper studies the economic consequences of carbon taxes at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. I propose a novel monthly measure of effective carbon tax rates, which, in contrast to the measures used by the existing ...

• Specification Search in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM): How Gradient Component-wise Boosting can Contribute 

  Hansen, Bjørn Gunnar; Olsson, Ulf H. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)

  Although structural equation model (SEM) is a powerful and widely applied tool particularly in social sciences, few studies have explored how SEM and statistical learning methods can be combined. The purpose of this paper ...

• Dominant Drivers of National Inflation 

  Ditzen, Jan; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2022, Working paper, 2022-12-29)

  For western economies a long-forgotten phenomenon is on the horizon: rising inflation rates. We propose a novel approach christened D2ML to identify drivers of national inflation. D2ML combines machine learning for model ...

• The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions 

  Bjørnland, Hilde C. (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2022, Working paper, 2022-12)

  Much research has documented how changes in supply and demand cause commodity price fluctuations, with subsequent effects on the global economy. This paper puts the recent energy price surge in perspective amid geopolitical ...

• Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending 

  Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)

  We investigate the impact of macro-related uncertainty on bank lending in Norway. We show that an increase in general macroeconomic uncertainty reduces bank lending. Importantly, however, we show that this effect is largely ...

• Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers 

  Ellingsen, Jon; Espegren, Caroline (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2022, Working paper, 2022-12-01)

  We estimate the earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers using a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set from Norway, coupled with an event-study framework of the oil price drop in 2014. Displacement leads ...

• Monetary policy when export revenues drop 

  Bergholt, Drago; Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)

  We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, ...

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