Now showing items 60-79 of 132

    • Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management 

      Akram, Farooq; Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a ...
    • Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices 

      Gianfreda, Angelica; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2020, Working paper, 2020-07-02)
      We study the importance of time-varying volatility in modelling hourly electricity prices when fundamental drivers are included in the estimation. This allows us to contribute to the literature of large Bayesian VARs by ...
    • Local economic development and oil discoveries 

      Hamang, Jonas Hveding (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2022, Working paper, 2022-09-15)
      In this paper I use data on the location of all historic petroleum discoveries onshore to establish a new stylized fact: Economically developed areas are significantly more likely (about five percentage points) to contain ...
    • Local Natural Resource Curse? 

      Borge, Lars-Erik; Parmer, Pernille; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      The large variation in revenues among Norwegian local governments can partly be explained by revenues collected from hydropower production. This revenue variation, combined with good data availability, can be used to ...
    • Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers 

      Ellingsen, Jon; Espegren, Caroline (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2022, Working paper, 2022-12-01)
      We estimate the earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers using a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set from Norway, coupled with an event-study framework of the oil price drop in 2014. Displacement leads ...
    • Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Koop, Gary; Poon, Aubrey (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-15)
      Vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility in both the conditional mean and variance are commonly used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. Despite their popularity, intensive computational ...
    • Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending 

      Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)
      We investigate the impact of macro-related uncertainty on bank lending in Norway. We show that an increase in general macroeconomic uncertainty reduces bank lending. Importantly, however, we show that this effect is largely ...
    • Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona 

      Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2020, Working paper, 2020-06)
      For a developed market economies, the corona crisis is a new type of crisis, but this crisis has parallels to economies at other times, and to crises at other places. We discuss some mechanisms from the traditional macro ...
    • Markov Switching Panel with Network Interaction Effects 

      Agudze, Komla Mawulom; Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;1, Working paper, 2018-01)
      The paper introduces a new dynamic panel model for large data sets of time series, each of them characterized by a series-specific Markov switching process. By introducing a neighbourhood system based on a network ...
    • Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe 

      Caporin, Massimiliano; Pelizzon, Loriana; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rigobon, Roberto (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2012, Working paper, 2014-06-24)
      This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using credit default swaps (CDS) and bond premiums for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing several econometric approaches (nonlinear regression, quantile regression ...
    • Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through 

      Altavilla, Carlo; Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo (CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      We analyze the pass-through of monetary policy measures to lending rates to fi rms and households in the euro area using a novel bank-level dataset. Banks characteristics such as the capital ratio, the exposure to sovereign ...
    • Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models. 

      Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo (CAMP Working Paper Series;13/2018, Working paper, 2018-12-11)
      We study what happens to identified shocks and to dynamic responses when the structural model features q disturbances and m endogenous variables, q ≤ m, but only m1 < q variables are used in the empirical model. Identified ...
    • Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching 

      Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;9, Working paper, 2017-12)
      Occasionally binding constraints are part of the economic landscape: for instance recent experience with the global financial crisis has highlighted the gravity of the lower bound constraint on interest rates; mortgagors ...
    • Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies 

      Bergholt, Drago (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      How should monetary policy be constructed when national income depends on oil exports? I set up a general equilibrium model for an oil exporting small open economy to analyze this question. Fundamentals include an oil ...
    • Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies 

      Terrell, Madison; Haque, Qazi; Cross, Jamie L.; Tchatoka, Firmin Doko (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2023, Working paper, 2023-06-29)
      This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy shocks and real exchange rates in several small open economies. To that end, we develop a novel identification strategy for time-varying structural vector ...
    • Monetary policy when export revenues drop 

      Bergholt, Drago; Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)
      We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, ...
    • Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk 

      Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2023, Working paper, 2023-08-03)
      We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence ...
    • Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting 

      McAlinn, Kenichiro; Aastveit, Knut Are; Nakajima, Jouchi; West, Mike (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2019, Working paper, 2019-01-16)
      We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, ...
    • Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media 

      ter Ellen, Saskia; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-16)
      We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage explained by central bank ...
    • New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets 

      Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H.; Zhang, Bo (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-08)
      China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that ...