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Nr 1/2010 og nr 2/2010 ble utgitt under navnet CAMAR Working Paper Series med ISSN 1892-2198. Fom nr 1/2011 skiftet serien navn til CAMP Working Paper Series med ISSN 1893-4811.

Recent Submissions

  • On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics 

    Hovdahl, Isabel (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;05/2019, Working paper, 2019-06)
    One of the most important research questions in climate economics is the relationship between temperatures and human mortality. This paper develops a procedure that enables the use of machine learning for estimating the ...
  • Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno; Anundsen, André (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2019, Working paper, 2019-06-18)
    Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have ...
  • News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities 

    Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-23)
    We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, ...
  • New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets 

    Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H.; Zhang, Bo (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-08)
    China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that ...
  • Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting 

    McAlinn, Kenichiro; Aastveit, Knut Are; Nakajima, Jouchi; West, Mike (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2019, Working paper, 2019-01-16)
    We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, ...
  • Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models. 

    Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo (CAMP Working Paper Series;13/2018, Working paper, 2018-12-11)
    We study what happens to identified shocks and to dynamic responses when the structural model features q disturbances and m endogenous variables, q ≤ m, but only m1 < q variables are used in the empirical model. Identified ...
  • On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach 

    Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Nguyen, Bao H. (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)
    We investigate the relationship between world oil markets and China's macroeconomic performance over the past two decades. Our analysis starts by proposing a simple method for disentangling real economic activity stemming ...
  • International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach 

    Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Poon, Aubrey (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 12/2018;, Working paper, 2018-11)
    We estimate the effects of domestic and international sources of macroeconomic uncertainty in three small open economy (SOE) inflation targeting countries: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. To this end, we propose a structural ...
  • A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models 

    Canova, Fabio; Matthes, Christian (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 10/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-08)
    We describe how to use the composite likelihood to ameliorate estimation, computational, and inferential problems in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We present a number of situations where the methodology ...
  • Growth with Age-Dependent Preferences 

    Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar; Valente, Simone (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 14/2018;, Working paper, 2018-12-10)
    We study the consequences of age-dependent preferences for economic growth and structural change in a two-sector model with overlapping generations and nondimishing returns to capital. Savings and accumulation rates depend ...
  • State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching 

    Chang, Yoosoon; Maih, Junior; Tan, Fei (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2018, Working paper, 2018-11-24)
    This article studies the estimation of state space models whose parameters are switching endogenously between two regimes, depending on whether an autoregressive latent factor crosses some threshold level. Endogeneity stems ...
  • The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 8/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-16)
    We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed as a result of the shale oil boom. To do so we allow for spillovers at the state level, as well as aggregate country level effects. We ...
  • The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price 

    Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2018-04)
    I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply ...
  • Business cycle narratives 

    Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6, Working paper, 2018-04)
    This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ...
  • Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series 

    Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;5, Working paper, 2018-03)
    This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, ...
  • Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;4, Working paper, 2018-02)
    In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ...
  • Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time–Series 

    Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3, Working paper, 2018-02)
    Cryptocurrencies have recently gained a lot of interest from investors, central banks and governments worldwide. The lack of any form of political regu- lation and their market far from being “efficient”, require new forms ...
  • Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration 

    Gianfreda, Angelica; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;2, Working paper, 2018-01)
    This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, probabilistic versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, with and without ...
  • Markov Switching Panel with Network Interaction Effects 

    Agudze, Komla Mawulom; Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;1, Working paper, 2018-01)
    The paper introduces a new dynamic panel model for large data sets of time series, each of them characterized by a series-specific Markov switching process. By introducing a neighbourhood system based on a network ...
  • Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching 

    Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;9, Working paper, 2017-12)
    Occasionally binding constraints are part of the economic landscape: for instance recent experience with the global financial crisis has highlighted the gravity of the lower bound constraint on interest rates; mortgagors ...

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