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Nr 1/2010 og nr 2/2010 ble utgitt under navnet CAMAR Working Paper Series med ISSN 1892-2198. Fom nr 1/2011 skiftet serien navn til CAMP Working Paper Series med ISSN 1893-4811.

Recent Submissions

  • News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting 

    Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2020, Working paper, 2020-10-08)
    Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ...
  • Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19 

    Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Larsen, Erling Røed; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-17)
    We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and bid-by-bid auction data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lock-down on March 12, and the ...
  • Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting 

    Iacopini, Matteo; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-01)
    This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, ...
  • Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices 

    Gianfreda, Angelica; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2020, Working paper, 2020-07-02)
    We study the importance of time-varying volatility in modelling hourly electricity prices when fundamental drivers are included in the estimation. This allows us to contribute to the literature of large Bayesian VARs by ...
  • Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona 

    Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2020, Working paper, 2020-06)
    For a developed market economies, the corona crisis is a new type of crisis, but this crisis has parallels to economies at other times, and to crises at other places. We discuss some mechanisms from the traditional macro ...
  • Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Cross, Jamie L. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2020, Working paper, 2020-06-25)
    Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-though of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ...
  • The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway 

    Olsen, Helene; Wieslander, Harald (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2020, Working paper, 2020-03)
    We search for leading determinants of financial instability in Norway using a signaling approach, and examine how these respond to a monetary policy shock with the use of structural VAR models. We find that the wholesale ...
  • Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality 

    Hovdahl, Isabel (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2020, Working paper, 2020-02-02)
    While economists have focused on the effect of mean temperatures on mortality, climate scientists have emphasized that global warming might not only lead to an increase in mean temperatures, but can potentially also affect ...
  • Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach 

    Ferrari, Davide; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Vespignani, Joaquin (CAMP Working Paper Series;11/2019, Working paper, 2019-12)
    This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially ...
  • OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment 

    Hvinden, Even Comfort (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)
    The market behavior nationalized oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is starkly time-varying. I rationalize OPEC's behavior in an infinitely repeated game of Cournot competition with ...
  • Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)
    We estimate a regime-switching DSGE model with a banking sector to explain incomplete and asymmetric interest rate pass-through, especially in the presence of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. The model is ...
  • Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C. (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2019, Working paper, 2019-11-18)
    In two recent papers, Kilian and Zhou (2019) and Kilian (2019) have criticized Bjørnland, Nordvik, and Rohrer (2017), arguing that our finding of a large price elasticity of output for shale producers is not credible. We ...
  • Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media 

    ter Ellen, Saskia; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-16)
    We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage explained by central bank ...
  • A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency 

    Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-12)
    This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the economic repercussions of cryptocurrency. We assume that cryptocurrency offers an alternative currency option to government currency ...
  • On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics 

    Hovdahl, Isabel (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;05/2019, Working paper, 2019-06)
    One of the most important research questions in climate economics is the relationship between temperatures and human mortality. This paper develops a procedure that enables the use of machine learning for estimating the ...
  • Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno; Anundsen, André (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2019, Working paper, 2019-06-18)
    Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have ...
  • News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities 

    Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-23)
    We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, ...
  • New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets 

    Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H.; Zhang, Bo (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-08)
    China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that ...
  • Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting 

    McAlinn, Kenichiro; Aastveit, Knut Are; Nakajima, Jouchi; West, Mike (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2019, Working paper, 2019-01-16)
    We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, ...
  • On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach 

    Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Nguyen, Bao H. (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)
    We investigate the relationship between world oil markets and China's macroeconomic performance over the past two decades. Our analysis starts by proposing a simple method for disentangling real economic activity stemming ...

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