Browsing Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP) by Title
Now showing items 78-97 of 132
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Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media
(CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-16)We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage explained by central bank ... -
New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-08)China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that ... -
News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2020, Working paper, 2020-10-08)Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ... -
News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-23)We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, ... -
Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2011, Working paper, 2011)In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, ... -
Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank
(CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2016, Working paper, 2016)The agents in the economy use a plethora of high frequency information, including news media, to guide their actions and thereby shape aggregate economic fluctuations. Traditional nowcasting approches have to a relatively ... -
Oil and Civil Conflict: On and Off (Shore)
(CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2017, Working paper, 2017)We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls increase the probability of conflict in ... -
Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes
(CAMP Working Paper Series;11, Working paper, 2020-12-29)We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regime-switching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes ... -
Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ... -
Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability
(CAMP Working Paper Series;No. 6/2017, Working paper, 2017-11)We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic insta- bility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ... -
Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2023, Working paper, 2023-03-13)This paper proposes a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR) model to examine the relationship between aggregate time series and functional variables in a multivariate setting. The model facilitates a re examination of the ... -
Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time Out-of Sample Examination
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2011, Working paper, 2011)We study the real-time predictive content of crude oil prices for US real GDP growth through a pseudo out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise. Comparing our benchmark model "without oil" against alternatives "with oil," ... -
Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2012, Working paper, 2012)In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such ... -
Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2023, Working paper, 2023-02-27)Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful ... -
Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2022, Working paper, 2022-08-11)I construct a novel dataset to investigate the effects of oil income in regions of Russia. My data combines regional level data on oil endowments and a wide range of economic series for 85 geographical regions of Russia. ... -
Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP
(CAMP Working Papers Series;10/2015, Working paper, 2015)We carry out a pseudo out-of-sample density forecasting study for U.S. GDP with an autoregressive benchmark and alternatives to the benchmark than include both oil prices and stochastic volatility. The alternatives to the ... -
On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)We investigate the relationship between world oil markets and China's macroeconomic performance over the past two decades. Our analysis starts by proposing a simple method for disentangling real economic activity stemming ... -
On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;05/2019, Working paper, 2019-06)One of the most important research questions in climate economics is the relationship between temperatures and human mortality. This paper develops a procedure that enables the use of machine learning for estimating the ... -
OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment
(CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)The market behavior nationalized oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is starkly time-varying. I rationalize OPEC's behavior in an infinitely repeated game of Cournot competition with ... -
OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-25)We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. ...