Browsing Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP) by Title
Now showing items 39-58 of 132
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Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;13/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-21)We analyse fiscal policy in resource-rich economies using a novel Bayesian regime-switching panel model. The identified regimes capture pro- or countercyclical fiscal behaviour, while the switches between the regimes have ... -
Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series
(CAMP Working Paper Series;5, Working paper, 2018-03)This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, ... -
Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;11/2019, Working paper, 2019-12)This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially ... -
Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different
(CAMP Working Papers Series;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. ... -
Foreign shocks
(CAMP Working Papers Series;11/2015, Working paper, 2015)How and to what extent are small open economies affected by international shocks? I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model that addresses both questions. The model incorporates i) international markets for firm-to-firm ... -
Foreign Shocks in an Estimated Multi-Sector Model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2014, Working paper, 2014)How are macroeconomic fluctuations in open economies affected by international business cycles? To shed some light on this question, I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model for a small open economy. The model ... -
Global and regional business cycles: Shocks and propagations
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2013, Working paper, 2014-06-24)We study the synchronization of real and nominal variables across four dfferent regions of the world, Asia, Europe, North and South America, covering 32 different countries. Employing a FAVAR framework, we distinguish ... -
Growth with Age-Dependent Preferences
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 14/2018;, Working paper, 2018-12-10)We study the consequences of age-dependent preferences for economic growth and structural change in a two-sector model with overlapping generations and nondimishing returns to capital. Savings and accumulation rates depend ... -
House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism
(CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2012, Working paper, 2012)We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) ... -
The household effects of mortgage regulation
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2021, Working paper, 2021-12)We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on child and parent household balance sheets, highlighting important trade-offs in terms of financial vulnerability. Using Norwegian tax data, we show that loan-to-value caps ... -
How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate
(CAMAR Working Paper Series;1/2010, Working paper, 2010)This paper analyzes how monetary policy has responded to exchange rate movements in six open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. We address this ... -
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2020, Working paper, 2020-03)We search for leading determinants of financial instability in Norway using a signaling approach, and examine how these respond to a monetary policy shock with the use of structural VAR models. We find that the wholesale ... -
Implementing the Zero Lower Bound in an Estimated Regime-Switching DSGE Model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2016, Working paper, 2016)The Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on policy rates is one of the key monetary policy issues du jour. In this paper we investigate the problem of modelling and estimating the ZLB in a simple New Keynesian model with regime switches. ... -
The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-27)We show that under fairly general conditions, the combination of (i) competitive markets, (ii) free entry, and (iii) democracy is inconsistent with allocative efficiency. This fundamental impossibility result, which has ... -
Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2020, Working paper, 2020-06-25)Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-though of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ... -
The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2024, Working paper, 2024-01-23)We investigate the influence of the U.S. government’s spending and taxation decisions, along with the monetary policy choices made by the Federal Reserve, on the dynamics of the nominal yield curve. Aggregate government ... -
Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model
(CAMP Working Papers Series; 8/2014, Working paper, 2014)Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ... -
Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2014, Working paper, 2014)Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ... -
International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 12/2018;, Working paper, 2018-11)We estimate the effects of domestic and international sources of macroeconomic uncertainty in three small open economy (SOE) inflation targeting countries: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. To this end, we propose a structural ... -
The interplay between monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2023, Working paper, 2023-08)We develop a theory for the optimal interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. While one might initially think that monetary and fiscal policy should pull in the same direction, we show within a simple model that this ...