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Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes

Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2722610
Date
2020-12-29
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  • Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP) [104]
Abstract
We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regime-switching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes over the sample in 23 OECD and non-OECD oil producing countries. We find that fiscal policy is switching between pro- and countercyclial regimes multiple times. Furthermore, for all countries, fiscal policy is more volatile in the countercyclical regime than in the procyclical regime. In the procyclical regime, however, fiscal policy is systematically more volatile and excessive in the non-OECD (including OPEC) countries than in the OECD countries. This suggests OECD countries are able to smooth spending and save more than the non-OECD countries. Our results emphasize that it is both possible and important to separate a procyclical regime from a countercyclical regime when analysing fiscal policy. Doing so, we have encountered new facts about fiscal policy in oil rich countries.
Publisher
BI Norwegian Business School
Series
CAMP Working Paper Series;11

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