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Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19

Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Larsen, Erling Røed; Thorsrud, Leif Anders
Working paper
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working_camp_07-2020.pdf (1.164Mb)
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2678885
Date
2020-09-17
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  • Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP) [98]
Abstract
We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and bid-by-bid auction data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lock-down on March 12, and the re-opening on April 20. We find that behavior changed voluntarily before the lock-down, and we find effects on the housing market from both the lock-down and the re-opening. In particular, there exists a discontinuity on the date of the lock-down in transaction volumes, sell-prediction spreads, aggressive bidding behavior, and seller confidence. However, when we compare observed price developments with our estimated counter-factual price developments, we find that roughly half of the total fall in prices had occurred when the lock-down was implemented. The re-opening completely reverses the lock-down effect on prices. We also show that voluntary behavioural changes, as well as lock-down and re-opening effects, are visible in various measures of social mobility, and that changes in daily news sentiment correlate with the abnormal price movements during this period.
Series
CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2020

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