Now showing items 101-120 of 132

    • A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Vespignani, Joaquin L. (CAMP Working Papers Series;2/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely ...
    • The Political Economy of Public Income Volatility: With an Application to the Resource Curse 

      Robinson, James A.; Torvik, Ragnar; Verdier, Thierry (CAMP Working Papers Series;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We develop a model of the political consequences of public income volatility. As is standard, political incentives create inefficient policies, but we show that making income uncertain creates specific new effects. Future ...
    • Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Papers Series;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. ...
    • Does oil promote or prevent coups? 

      Nordvik, Frode Martin (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’´etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore ...
    • Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model 

      Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ...
    • The fiscal incentive of GHG cap and trade: Permits may be too cheap and developed countries may abate too little 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Greaker, Mads (Working paper, 2014)
      The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. ...
    • Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies 

      Bergholt, Drago (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      How should monetary policy be constructed when national income depends on oil exports? I set up a general equilibrium model for an oil exporting small open economy to analyze this question. Fundamentals include an oil ...
    • Density Forecasts with MIDAS Models 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Foroni, Claudia; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions ...
    • Foreign Shocks in an Estimated Multi-Sector Model 

      Bergholt, Drago (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      How are macroeconomic fluctuations in open economies affected by international business cycles? To shed some light on this question, I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model for a small open economy. The model ...
    • Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. ...
    • Voting When the Stakes Are High 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Fiva, Jon H.; Natvik, Gisle J. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Most theories of voter behavior predict that electoral participation will be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction by studying how participation is affected by exogenous variation in local ...
    • Petro Populism 

      Matsen, Egil; Natvik, Gisle J.; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We aim to explain petro populism|the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income politicians need to remain in office over time. Hence, even a rent-seeking ...
    • China’s Savings Multiplier 

      Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar; Valente, Simone (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      China’s growth is characterized by massive capital accumulation, made possible by high and increasing domestic savings. In this paper we develop a model with the aim of explaining why savings rates have been high and ...
    • Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets 

      Lombardi, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such ...
    • Local Natural Resource Curse? 

      Borge, Lars-Erik; Parmer, Pernille; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      The large variation in revenues among Norwegian local governments can partly be explained by revenues collected from hydropower production. This revenue variation, combined with good data availability, can be used to ...
    • Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Bank Deposits in Tax Havens 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels; Lassen, David Dreyer; Paltseva, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that ...
    • Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe 

      Caporin, Massimiliano; Pelizzon, Loriana; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rigobon, Roberto (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2012, Working paper, 2014-06-24)
      This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using credit default swaps (CDS) and bond premiums for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing several econometric approaches (nonlinear regression, quantile regression ...
    • Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productiv- ity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian ...
    • Global and regional business cycles: Shocks and propagations 

      Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2013, Working paper, 2014-06-24)
      We study the synchronization of real and nominal variables across four dfferent regions of the world, Asia, Europe, North and South America, covering 32 different countries. Employing a FAVAR framework, we distinguish ...
    • Sectorial interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies 

      Bergholt, Drago; Sveen, Tommy (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Existing DSGE models are not able to reproduce the observed influence of international business cycles on small open economies. We construct a two-sector New Keynesian model to address this puzzle. The set-up takes into ...