Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP): Nye registreringer
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Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different
(CAMP Working Papers Series;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. ... -
Does oil promote or prevent coups?
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2014, Working paper, 2014)A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’´etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore ... -
Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2014, Working paper, 2014)Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ... -
The fiscal incentive of GHG cap and trade: Permits may be too cheap and developed countries may abate too little
(Working paper, 2014)The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. ... -
Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2014, Working paper, 2014)How should monetary policy be constructed when national income depends on oil exports? I set up a general equilibrium model for an oil exporting small open economy to analyze this question. Fundamentals include an oil ... -
Density Forecasts with MIDAS Models
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2014, Working paper, 2014)In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions ... -
Foreign Shocks in an Estimated Multi-Sector Model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2014, Working paper, 2014)How are macroeconomic fluctuations in open economies affected by international business cycles? To shed some light on this question, I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model for a small open economy. The model ... -
Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2014, Working paper, 2014)Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. ... -
Voting When the Stakes Are High
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2013, Working paper, 2013)Most theories of voter behavior predict that electoral participation will be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction by studying how participation is affected by exogenous variation in local ... -
Petro Populism
(CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2014, Working paper, 2014)We aim to explain petro populism|the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income politicians need to remain in office over time. Hence, even a rent-seeking ... -
China’s Savings Multiplier
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2013, Working paper, 2013)China’s growth is characterized by massive capital accumulation, made possible by high and increasing domestic savings. In this paper we develop a model with the aim of explaining why savings rates have been high and ... -
Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2012, Working paper, 2012)In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such ... -
Local Natural Resource Curse?
(CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2013, Working paper, 2013)The large variation in revenues among Norwegian local governments can partly be explained by revenues collected from hydropower production. This revenue variation, combined with good data availability, can be used to ... -
Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Bank Deposits in Tax Havens
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that ... -
Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2012, Working paper, 2014-06-24)This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using credit default swaps (CDS) and bond premiums for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing several econometric approaches (nonlinear regression, quantile regression ... -
Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy
(CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2013, Working paper, 2013)Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productiv- ity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian ... -
Global and regional business cycles: Shocks and propagations
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2013, Working paper, 2014-06-24)We study the synchronization of real and nominal variables across four dfferent regions of the world, Asia, Europe, North and South America, covering 32 different countries. Employing a FAVAR framework, we distinguish ... -
Sectorial interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)Existing DSGE models are not able to reproduce the observed influence of international business cycles on small open economies. We construct a two-sector New Keynesian model to address this puzzle. The set-up takes into ... -
Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation
(CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2013, Working paper, 2013)Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their ... -
Why Do Voters Dismantle Checks and Balances? Extensions and Robustness. (Online appendix)
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2013, Working paper, 2013)In this online appendix we extend the basic model in the paper in several directions, discuss the robustness of the results, and moreover what new mechanisms our extensions implies as compared to the ones in the basic model.