Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP): Recent submissions

Now showing items 121-130 of 130

    • Does oil promote or prevent coups? 

      Nordvik, Frode Martin (CAMP Working Papers Series;7/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’´etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore ...

    • The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Greaker, Mads (CAMP Working Papers Series;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. However, ...

    • Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models 

      Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Papers Series;10/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      In an environment where economic structures break, variances change, distributions shift, conventional policies weaken and past events tend to reoccur, economic agents have to form expectations over different regimes. ...

    • What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ...

    • Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMAR Working Paper Series;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then ...

    • House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jacobsen, Dag Henning (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) ...

    • The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ...

    • Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, ...

    • How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Halvorsen, Jørn I. (CAMAR Working Paper Series;1/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      This paper analyzes how monetary policy has responded to exchange rate movements in six open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. We address this ...

    • Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time Out-of Sample Examination 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rothman, Philip (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      We study the real-time predictive content of crude oil prices for US real GDP growth through a pseudo out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise. Comparing our benchmark model "without oil" against alternatives "with oil," ...