Does oil promote or prevent coups?

Abstract

A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’´etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore production, and covering 172 countries from 1900 to 2012, onshore oil is seen to promote coup while offshore oil prevents them. A likely mechanism is that onshore oil motivates military build-ups, while offshore oil does not. From a political leader’s point of view, a large military is a double-edged sword, because it may turn against him and stage a coup.