• Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productiv- ity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian ...
    • Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. ...
    • Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We analyse if the adoption of a fiscal spending rule insulates the domestic economy from commodity price fluctuations in a resource-rich economy. To do so we develop a time-varying Dynamic Factor Model, in which we allow ...
    • Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2020, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility ...
    • Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMAR Working Paper Series;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then ...
    • Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;4, Working paper, 2018-02)
      In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ...
    • Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Papers Series;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. ...
    • House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jacobsen, Dag Henning (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) ...
    • How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Halvorsen, Jørn I. (CAMAR Working Paper Series;1/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      This paper analyzes how monetary policy has responded to exchange rate movements in six open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. We address this ...
    • Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)
      We estimate a regime-switching DSGE model with a banking sector to explain incomplete and asymmetric interest rate pass-through, especially in the presence of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. The model is ...
    • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ...
    • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;No. 6/2017, Working paper, 2017-11)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic insta- bility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ...
    • Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Rohrer, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We analyse if output exibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, we ask to what extent shale oil producers respond to price incentives by changing completion of new wells as well as oil ...
    • Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2019, Working paper, 2019-11-18)
      In two recent papers, Kilian and Zhou (2019) and Kilian (2019) have criticized Bjørnland, Nordvik, and Rohrer (2017), arguing that our finding of a large price elasticity of output for shale producers is not credible. We ...
    • The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 8/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-16)
      We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks in the U.S. economy has changed as a result of the shale oil boom. To do so we allow for spillovers at the state level, as well as aggregate country level effects. We ...
    • The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ...
    • What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ...