This is a working paper version of a paper written for SENT - The Network of European Studies. The working paper provides an overview of the development of the British and Irish literature on the EU, from the early debates ...

We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ...

This is a paper presented at the European Consortium for Political Research Joint Sessions of Workshops, Helsinki, May 7-12, 2007.

Mye av de økonomiske ulikhetene i USA skyldes finansmarkedenes virkemåte, og hvordan toppledere mer generelt har klart å ta ut en stadig økende andel av verdiskapningen, hevder professor Joseph E. Stiglitz i boken The Price ...

Aarbeidsnotatet er satt sammen av Månedsbrevet til Arne Jon Isachsen for juli-desember 2007. Månedsbrevet består av 6 ulike artikler.

This paper shows entropic tilting to be a flexible and powerful tool for combining mediumterm forecasts from BVARs with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting ...

Most theories of voter behavior predict that electoral participation will be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction by studying how participation is affected by exogenous variation in local ...

We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ...