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Forecasting oil and gas Prices: A Model Combination Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2024, Working paper, 2024-12-31)This paper advances energy price forecasting by extending state-of-the-art econometric models for oil markets to address the distinct characteristics of fragmented natural gas markets. Using a forecast combination framework, ... -
Piecing the puzzle: Real exchange rates and long-run fundamentals
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2024, Working paper, 2024-12-19)This paper examines the structural determinants of real exchange rates, emphasizing the persistent low frequency movements that traditional models, such as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP), ... -
Requirements for Simulation of the Future Operating Environment and Multi-Domain Operations
(Chapter, 2024)The future operating environment is expected to become increasingly complex, lethal, and ambiguous. The operational tempo in high-intensity operations is expected to increase, and effects will be increasingly cross-domain ... -
Too Much AI Hype, Too Little Emphasis on Learning? Entrepreneurs Designing Business Models Through Learning-by-Conversing With Generative AI
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)Entrepreneurs traditionally use “learning-by-doing” and “learning-by-thinking” as alternative approaches to iteratively build business models for their new ventures. However, both approaches face criticism in how they ... -
Robust Estimation for Threshold Autoregressive Moving-Average Models
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models extend the popular TAR model and are among the few parametric time series specifications to include a moving average in a nonlinear setting. The state dependent reactions ...