Now showing items 1-20 of 295

    • The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Nguyen, Bao H.; Tran, Trung Duc (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2021, Working paper, 2021-11-01)
      Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand as a composite shock, known as storage demand shocks, due to difficulties in identifying these distinct ...
    • Koronakrisen og kultursektoren: endringer i aktivitet i mars og april 2020 

      Grünfeld, Leo A.; Gran, Anne-Britt; Westberg, Nina Buvik; Stokke, Ole Magnus; Guldvik, Maria Køber; Scheffer, Marian; Gaustad, Terje; Booth, Peter (Research report, 2020)
      Spredningen av Covid19 i befolkningen i Norge og andre land har ført til at etterspørselen etter tjenester som krever fysiske møter mellom folk har nærmest kollapset i løpet av få dager i midten av mars 2020. Markedet for ...
    • Kultursektorens økonomi i Norge 2018 

      Westberg, Nina Buvik; Guldvik, Maria Køber; Erraia, Jonas; Gaustad, Terje; Gran, Anne-Britt (Research report, 2020)
      Menon Economics og BI:CCI har på oppdrag fra Kulturrådet gjennomført en kartlegging av kultursektorens økonomiske aktivitet for året 2018. Kultursektoren er her avgrenset til bransjene musikk, bok, kunst, scenekunst og ...
    • The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2021, Working paper, 2021-09-11)
      Shale oil producers respond positively and significantly to favourable oil price signals. This finding is established using a novel proprietary data set consisting of more than 200,000 shale wells across ten U.S. states ...
    • Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Koop, Gary; Poon, Aubrey (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-15)
      Vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility in both the conditional mean and variance are commonly used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. Despite their popularity, intensive computational ...
    • Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie L.; van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-01)
      We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...
    • Facilitating integration and maintaining autonomy: The role of managerial action and interaction in post-acquisition capability transfer 

      Colman, Helene Loe (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Through acquisitions, firms can access resources and capabilities they cannot develop on their own. Post-acquisition, a key managerial challenge is balancing the need for integration, to transfer capabilities, with the ...
    • Nordic Mission Possible: An Assessment of Covid-19’s Impact on the Nordic Audiovisual Industry and the Effectiveness of Government and Industry Measures 

      Gaustad, Terje; Booth, Peter; Offerdal, Endre; Svensson, Linnea E.; Gran, Anne-Britt (Research report, 2021)
      We have studied the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the restrictive and mitigating government and industry measures it has triggered for the audiovisual industry in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and ...
    • The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy 

      Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-27)
      We show that under fairly general conditions, the combination of (i) competitive markets, (ii) free entry, and (iii) democracy is inconsistent with allocative efficiency. This fundamental impossibility result, which has ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2020, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility ...
    • OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets 

      Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Hvinden, Even Soltvedt (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. ...
    • Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes 

      Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;11, Working paper, 2020-12-29)
      We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regime-switching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes ...
    • Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies 

      Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2020, Working paper, 2020-12-03)
      The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ...
    • Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia 

      Cross, Jamie; Zhang, Bo; Guo, Na (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2020, Working paper, 2020-11-18)
      We investigate whether a class of trend models with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result ...
    • News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting 

      Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2020, Working paper, 2020-10-08)
      Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ...
    • Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19 

      Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Larsen, Erling Røed; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-17)
      We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and bid-by-bid auction data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lock-down on March 12, and the ...
    • Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting 

      Iacopini, Matteo; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-01)
      This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, ...
    • Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona 

      Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2020, Working paper, 2020-06)
      For a developed market economies, the corona crisis is a new type of crisis, but this crisis has parallels to economies at other times, and to crises at other places. We discuss some mechanisms from the traditional macro ...
    • Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices 

      Gianfreda, Angelica; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2020, Working paper, 2020-07-02)
      We study the importance of time-varying volatility in modelling hourly electricity prices when fundamental drivers are included in the estimation. This allows us to contribute to the literature of large Bayesian VARs by ...
    • Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Cross, Jamie L. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2020, Working paper, 2020-06-25)
      Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-though of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ...