Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? the Answer Is Yes

Abstract

A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’état. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore volumes, oil price shocks are seen to promote coups in onshore-intensive oil countries, while preventing them in offshore-intensive oil countries. A likely mechanism is that onshore oil motivates military build-ups, while offshore oil does not. From a political leader's point of view, a large military is a double-edged sword because it may turn against him and stage a coup.