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Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? the Answer Is Yes

Nordvik, Frode Martin
Journal article, Peer reviewed
Accepted version
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Available from 2020-07-07 (696.1Kb)
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2657360
Date
2019
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  • Publikasjoner fra CRIStin - BI [643]
  • Scientific articles [1357]
Original version
Economic Journal. 2019, 129 (619), 1425-1456.   10.1111/ecoj.12604
Abstract
A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’état. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore volumes, oil price shocks are seen to promote coups in onshore-intensive oil countries, while preventing them in offshore-intensive oil countries. A likely mechanism is that onshore oil motivates military build-ups, while offshore oil does not. From a political leader's point of view, a large military is a double-edged sword because it may turn against him and stage a coup.
Publisher
Oxford Uni. Press
Journal
Economic Journal

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