BI Research Centre's Series: Nye registreringer
Viser treff 21-40 av 331
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Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk
(CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2023, Working paper, 2023-08-03)We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence ... -
Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis
(CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2023, Working paper, 2023-08-03)This paper extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. By means of synthetic and real data experiments it is ... -
Where do they care? The ECB in the media and inflation expectations
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2023, Working paper, 2023-05-10)This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, ... -
Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2023, Working paper, 2023-03-13)This paper proposes a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR) model to examine the relationship between aggregate time series and functional variables in a multivariate setting. The model facilitates a re examination of the ... -
Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2023, Working paper, 2023-02-27)Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful ... -
The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2023, Working paper, 2023-01)This paper studies the economic consequences of carbon taxes at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. I propose a novel monthly measure of effective carbon tax rates, which, in contrast to the measures used by the existing ... -
Specification Search in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM): How Gradient Component-wise Boosting can Contribute
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)Although structural equation model (SEM) is a powerful and widely applied tool particularly in social sciences, few studies have explored how SEM and statistical learning methods can be combined. The purpose of this paper ... -
Dominant Drivers of National Inflation
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2022, Working paper, 2022-12-29)For western economies a long-forgotten phenomenon is on the horizon: rising inflation rates. We propose a novel approach christened D2ML to identify drivers of national inflation. D2ML combines machine learning for model ... -
The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2022, Working paper, 2022-12)Much research has documented how changes in supply and demand cause commodity price fluctuations, with subsequent effects on the global economy. This paper puts the recent energy price surge in perspective amid geopolitical ... -
Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending
(CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)We investigate the impact of macro-related uncertainty on bank lending in Norway. We show that an increase in general macroeconomic uncertainty reduces bank lending. Importantly, however, we show that this effect is largely ... -
Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers
(CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2022, Working paper, 2022-12-01)We estimate the earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers using a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set from Norway, coupled with an event-study framework of the oil price drop in 2014. Displacement leads ... -
Monetary policy when export revenues drop
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, ... -
Local economic development and oil discoveries
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2022, Working paper, 2022-09-15)In this paper I use data on the location of all historic petroleum discoveries onshore to establish a new stylized fact: Economically developed areas are significantly more likely (about five percentage points) to contain ... -
Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2022, Working paper, 2022-08-11)I construct a novel dataset to investigate the effects of oil income in regions of Russia. My data combines regional level data on oil endowments and a wide range of economic series for 85 geographical regions of Russia. ... -
Quantifying supply-side climate policies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2022, Working paper, 2022-02)What are the effects of supply-side climate policies? We use global firm-level data to estimate the impact of 130 oil-tax reforms between 2000 and 2019 on oil production, exploration and discoveries. Higher taxes are found ... -
The household effects of mortgage regulation
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2021, Working paper, 2021-12)We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on child and parent household balance sheets, highlighting important trade-offs in terms of financial vulnerability. Using Norwegian tax data, we show that loan-to-value caps ... -
The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil
(CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2021, Working paper, 2021-11-01)Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand as a composite shock, known as storage demand shocks, due to difficulties in identifying these distinct ... -
Koronakrisen og kultursektoren: endringer i aktivitet i mars og april 2020
(Research report, 2020)Spredningen av Covid19 i befolkningen i Norge og andre land har ført til at etterspørselen etter tjenester som krever fysiske møter mellom folk har nærmest kollapset i løpet av få dager i midten av mars 2020. Markedet for ... -
Kultursektorens økonomi i Norge 2018
(Research report, 2020)Menon Economics og BI:CCI har på oppdrag fra Kulturrådet gjennomført en kartlegging av kultursektorens økonomiske aktivitet for året 2018. Kultursektoren er her avgrenset til bransjene musikk, bok, kunst, scenekunst og ... -
The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data
(CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2021, Working paper, 2021-09-11)Shale oil producers respond positively and significantly to favourable oil price signals. This finding is established using a novel proprietary data set consisting of more than 200,000 shale wells across ten U.S. states ...