Dividend changes and firm performance

Abstract

In this paper, we test the information content of dividends (ICD) hypothesis for Norwegian non-listed firms, to explore whether dividend changes have positive relationship with future earnings. After applying both linear and nonlinear models, we find it difficult to support the ICD hypothesis for Norwegian non-listed firms, including large and small firms. Since there is a tax reform during 2004 to 2006 in Norway, we test the ICD hypothesis separately in two different tax systems as well as in certain years with transitionary rules. The results demonstrate that dividend decreases negative relate with further earnings in new tax system and ICD valid for small firms in 2001 and for the entire sample in 2005. Key words: Dividend changes, ICD hypothesis, tax reform, ROE, future earnings