Assessing Resilience Of Medicine Supply Chain Networks To Disruptions: A Proposed Hybrid Simulation Modeling Framework

Abstract

The objective of the proposed hybrid simulation modeling framework is to improve the understanding and operation of medicine supply chains, to strengthen their resilience to ensure the availability of medicines. The framework draws upon hybrid simulation, supply chain resilience and medicine supply chain literature. The utility of the proposed framework is presented through the development of a case model of a generic (off-patent) case medicine in the Norwegian system to perform scenario-based experiments on disruption events and interventions. Two disruption scenarios are evaluated a demand shock e.g., hoarding, and a supply shock, e.g., a major disruption at a key supplier. The effect of these disruptions on the system without interventions is compared with proactive and reactive interventions, namely prepositioned stock, and flexible ordering. Future directions for framework development have been identified.