Selecting Future Leaders - A validation study of the selection process for military leadership education in the Norwegian Armed Forces
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- Master of Science 
The ability to predict future performance is crucial for sustainable selection procedures. While several selection methods individually predict both performance in job training programs and subsequent job performance, of particular interest is the ability of a system of methods to predict performance in related yet different domains. This study investigates the extent to which the selection system for the Norwegian Armed Forces’ Officer Candidate School is able to predict performance during education and training, in addition to subsequent performance in the role as a military leader. Furthermore, the relationship between selection, education and subsequent leadership performance is investigated through assessing the contribution of education and training in predicting leadership performance when controlling for the effect of the selection system. While the selection system is highly predictive of academic performance in the education’s theoretical aspects, it is far less predictive of performance in practical aspects and of subsequent performance in the role as a military leader. Performance during education and training is, expectedly, highly predictive of subsequent leadership performance. Paradoxically, it is performance in the education’s practical aspects that contributes to subsequent leadership performance, while academic performance in the education’s theoretical aspects appears to be negatively (though not significantly) related to subsequent leadership performance. The study concludes that the skills, competencies and abilities required for learning in academic environments are not necessarily important for mastering the practical aspects of military leadership. In such, a tailormade rather than generic competency framework based on identification of specific skills, competencies and abilities directly relevant to a specific job role and its context would facilitate accurate definition of selection criteria, optimization of their use, and ultimately greater accuracy in predicting subsequent on-the-job performance.
Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Leadership and Organizational Psychology - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2020