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Electoral Cycles and Environmental Cooperation, An event study on elections and environmental agreements

Werth, Jonas
Master thesis
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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2687463
Utgivelsesdato
2020
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  • Master of Science [963]
Sammendrag
How does political competition impact the ability of countries to successfully coordinate

their trans-national efforts to fight environmental externalities? As the international

community increasingly relies on environmental agreements, it is crucial to explore this

side effect of democratic systems and the implications it has on pressing challenges

like climate change and environmental pollution. In this thesis project, I use multiple

existing data sources to construct a dataset that merges information on the ratification

of environmental agreements, political term lengths, election dates, and party-level data

on environmental preferences for 36 OECD countries between 1975 and 2017. With

this dataset, I perform an event study on the likelihood of ratification before, and after

the election. Furthermore, I investigate if changes in pro-environmentalism between

incumbents and successors foster electoral cycles. I find a significant impact of the

electoral calendar on the likelihood of ratification for environmental agreements. Further,

there is strong evidence that newly elected governments with stronger environmental

preferences drive electoral cycles, but the impact is heterogeneous for different periods

after the election. While newly elected green governments tend to ratify agreements

shortly after the election, reelected incumbents postpone ratification further into the

new term. This study contributes to the research field of environmental economics and

the broader field of political economy by empirically testing for a mechanism through

which electoral competition has negative spillovers on environmental cooperation and the

provision of global public goods. In addition, the dataset can be used as a foundation for

future research on questions surrounding the formation of environmental agreements.

Keywords – International Environmental Agreements, Electoral Cycles, Political

Economy, Event Study, Survival Analysis
Beskrivelse
Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Economics - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2020
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Handelshøyskolen BI

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