2028 - A field guide to the future of the Norwegian grocery industry

Abstract

In this paper we have sought to identify key drivers that will shape the Norwegian grocery industry the next ten years, with the final result being four scenarios revealing ranges of plausible development in the future. We utilized a well-established framework for performing a scenario analysis, following the work of two prominent scholars within the field, Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Kees van der Heijden. We performed 7 in-depth interviews with industry experts and executives from the industry. Secondary data from academic articles, industry specific reports and news articles, supplemented insights from the interviewees. After a thorough process of analysis, we identified 18 drivers, that was later clustered and cut down to four key drivers. These key drivers are what we consider to be the most prominent driving forces in shaping the future of the industry. For each key driver we did a literature review of the topic, while also discussing the empirical findings collected through the in-depth interviews. To create the scenarios, we employed a 2x2 scenario matrix with two axes: liberalization of trade policies, and innovativeness and adoption of new technology. The four scenarios that emerged were presented as logically constructed narratives that describe the future situation. Finally, we draw some managerial conclusions. In short, there are areas in which grocery chains have full autonomy, and there are areas that they don’t. Changes in political climate is something that for the most part, is out of their control. However, innovativeness and the willingness to adopt new technology is naturally an area in which the industry representatives have full autonomy. The narratives present the different players in the industry as acting uniformly to all the scenarios in this paper, and so, every scenario represents a threat or opportunity for the industry as a whole.