BI Research Centre's Series: Recent submissions
Now showing items 141-160 of 329
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Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP
(CAMP Working Papers Series;10/2015, Working paper, 2015)We carry out a pseudo out-of-sample density forecasting study for U.S. GDP with an autoregressive benchmark and alternatives to the benchmark than include both oil prices and stochastic volatility. The alternatives to the ... -
Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2015, Working paper, 2015)This paper shows entropic tilting to be a flexible and powerful tool for combining mediumterm forecasts from BVARs with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting ... -
Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ... -
Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule
(CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)We analyse if the adoption of a fiscal spending rule insulates the domestic economy from commodity price fluctuations in a resource-rich economy. To do so we develop a time-varying Dynamic Factor Model, in which we allow ... -
Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations
(CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)We extend the density combination approach of Billio et al. (2013) to feature combination weights that depend on the past forecasting performance of the individual models entering the combination through a utility-based ... -
The Value of News
(CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2015, Working paper, 2015)We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ... -
Social Capital and the Viability of Stakeholder-Oriented Firms: Evidence from Savings Banks
(CCGR Working Paper;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)We show that social capital improves the viability of stakeholder-oriented firms operating in competitive markets. Studying exits from the population of Norwegian savings banks after deregulations, we find that banks located ... -
Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model
(CAMP Working Papers Series; 8/2014, Working paper, 2014)Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ... -
Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models
(CAMP Working Papers Series;4/2015, Working paper, 2015)In this paper we take three well known Sigma Point Filters, namely the Unscented Kalman Filter, the Divided Difference Filter, and the Cubature Kalman Filter, and extend them to allow for a very general class of dynamic ... -
A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity
(CAMP Working Papers Series;2/2015, Working paper, 2015)In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely ... -
The Political Economy of Public Income Volatility: With an Application to the Resource Curse
(CAMP Working Papers Series;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)We develop a model of the political consequences of public income volatility. As is standard, political incentives create inefficient policies, but we show that making income uncertain creates specific new effects. Future ... -
Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different
(CAMP Working Papers Series;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. ... -
Samfunnsøkonomiske virkninger av fergefri E-39 Stavanger-Bergen
(CREAM Publications;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)Rapporten drøfter og beregner de samfunnsøkonomiske virkningene av en fergefri veiforbindelse E-39 fra Stavanger til Bergen. Det er to strekninger med to nye forbindelsespunkter som blir gjenstand for analyse. Den første ... -
Konkurranse, regulering og produktivitetsutvikling: generell forståelse og norske problemstillinger
(CREAM Publications;1/2014, Working paper, 2014)Hvorvidt markedskonkurranse er en kime til, eller en hemsko for innovasjon, har vært gjenstand for diskusjon og uenighet i økonomifaget i mange år. Hvilket perspektiv en her legger til grunn, får stor betydning for ... -
Does oil promote or prevent coups?
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2014, Working paper, 2014)A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’´etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore ... -
Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2014, Working paper, 2014)Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ... -
The fiscal incentive of GHG cap and trade: Permits may be too cheap and developed countries may abate too little
(Working paper, 2014)The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. ... -
Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2014, Working paper, 2014)How should monetary policy be constructed when national income depends on oil exports? I set up a general equilibrium model for an oil exporting small open economy to analyze this question. Fundamentals include an oil ... -
Density Forecasts with MIDAS Models
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2014, Working paper, 2014)In this paper we derive a general parametric bootstrapping approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions ... -
Foreign Shocks in an Estimated Multi-Sector Model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2014, Working paper, 2014)How are macroeconomic fluctuations in open economies affected by international business cycles? To shed some light on this question, I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model for a small open economy. The model ...