Blar i BI Research Centre's Series på emneord "Bayesian forecasting"

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    • Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting 

      McAlinn, Kenichiro; Aastveit, Knut Are; Nakajima, Jouchi; West, Mike (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2019, Working paper, 2019-01-16)
      We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, ...

    • Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie L.; van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-01)
      We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...