Browsing BI Research Centre's Series by Author "Larsen, Vegard H."
Now showing items 1-9 of 9
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Business cycle narratives
Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6, Working paper, 2018-04)This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ... -
Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies
Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2020, Working paper, 2020-12-03)The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ... -
Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending
Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)We investigate the impact of macro-related uncertainty on bank lending in Norway. We show that an increase in general macroeconomic uncertainty reduces bank lending. Importantly, however, we show that this effect is largely ... -
Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media
ter Ellen, Saskia; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-16)We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage explained by central bank ... -
News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2020, Working paper, 2020-10-08)Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ... -
News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-23)We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, ... -
Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability
Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ... -
Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability
Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;No. 6/2017, Working paper, 2017-11)We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic insta- bility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ... -
The Value of News
Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2015, Working paper, 2015)We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ...