Digging in the megaproject's graveyard: Why do megaprojects die, and how to check their health?

Abstract

The pressure to complete Infrastructure Megaprojects (IMs) is enormous; once started, IMs are commonly considered too costly to be stopped. Still, despite this widespread belief, several IMs are terminated during delivery/construction. Notwithstanding its empirical and theoretical relevance, few studies investigate IMs termination during delivery/construction. This paper aims to develop further the “reverse escalation of commitment” theory which sense-makes the termination of IMs. We take a critical confrontation of the existing literature addressing two questions: (1) Why are IMs terminated during delivery/construction? and (2) How does the project termination process occur in IMs? By analysing 30 unfinished IMs, we identified the six determinants for IMs termination, contributing to the development of reverse-escalation of commitment theory by providing a processual perspective of the four most common patterns leading to IMs termination. Finally, we provide a checklist for identifying key elements leading to IMs termination.