Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis

Abstract

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of Norges Bank. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Norges Bank. We would like to thank the editor Francesco Zanetti, two anonymous referees and one anonymous referee for the Norges Bank working paper series for constructive comments. We also thank Knut Are Aastveit, Ida Wolden Bache, Paul Beaudry, Julien Champagne, Tord Krogh, Per Espen Lilleås, Elmar Mertens, Alexander Rathke, Samad Sarferaz, Rodrigo Sekkel, Ingrid Solberg and seminar participants at KOF ETH in Zurich, CEF 2019 Conference in Ottawa, SNDE 2019 conference at Dallas Fed, CIRET/KOF/OECD/INSEE 2019 Workshop in Paris and Forecasting at Central Banks 2019 Conference at Bank of Canada.