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dc.contributor.authorRanders, Jørgen
dc.contributor.authorGoluke, Ulrich
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-20T11:57:58Z
dc.date.available2022-06-20T11:57:58Z
dc.date.created2020-11-24T11:20:34Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.citationScientific Reports. 2020, 10 (1), .en_US
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2999607
dc.description.abstractThe risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained thawing of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately. We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their findings. The thawing (in ESCIMO) is the result of a continuing self-sustained rise in the global temperature. This warming is the combined effect of three physical processes: (1) declining surface albedo (driven by melting of the Arctic ice cover), (2) increasing amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and (3) changes in the concentrations of the GHG in the atmosphere (driven by the absorption of CO2 in biomass and oceans, and emission of carbon (CH4 and CO2) from thawing permafrost). This self-sustained, in the sense of no further GHG emissions, thawing process (in ESCIMO) is a causally determined, physical process that evolves over time. It starts with the man-made warming up to the 1950s, leading to a rise in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere—further lifting the temperature, causing increasing release of carbon from thawing permafrost, and simultaneously a decline in the surface albedo as the ice and snow covers melts. To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherScientific Reportsen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.subjectBiogeochemistryen_US
dc.subjectClimate sciencesen_US
dc.subjectPlanetary scienceen_US
dc.titleAn earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020en_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.rights.holderThe Authorsen_US
dc.source.pagenumber0en_US
dc.source.volume10en_US
dc.source.journalScientific Reportsen_US
dc.source.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z
dc.identifier.cristin1851513
dc.source.articlenumber18456en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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