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dc.contributor.advisor
dc.contributor.authorFratzscher, Marcel
dc.contributor.authorRime, Dagfinn
dc.contributor.authorSarno, Lucio
dc.contributor.authorZinna, Gabriele
dc.date.accessioned2015-03-18T08:34:21Z
dc.date.available2015-03-18T08:34:21Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Monetary Economics, 70(2015): 1-21nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn0304-3932
dc.identifier.issn1873-1295
dc.identifier.issn10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.09.001
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/279548
dc.descriptionThis is the authors’ accepted, refereed and final manuscript to the articlenb_NO
dc.description.abstractThe scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2013) suggests that market participants may attach excessive weight to individual economic fundamentals, which are picked as \scapegoats" to rationalize observed currency uctuations at times when exchange rates are driven by unobservable shocks. Using novel survey data that directly measure foreign exchange scapegoats for 12 exchange rates, we nd empirical evidence that supports the scapegoat theory. The resulting models explain a large fraction of the variation and directional changes in exchange rates in sample, although their out-of-sample forecasting performance is mixed.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherElseviernb_NO
dc.titleThe scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first testsnb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.source.journalJournal of Monetary Economicsnb_NO
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.09.001
dc.description.localcode2, Forfatterversjonnb_NO


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