Forventninger til grønn omstilling i eiendomsbransjen; “Sustainability is here to stay or we may not be” - Niall FitzGerald

Abstract

This thesis aims to identify key risk factors for the real estate industry in Norway, by implementing a new classification system for sustainable investment, the Taxonomy Regulation. Since European legal climate acts are increasing in scope and complexity, an interdisciplinary assessment will be required, of both direct and indirect activities, contributing to mitigate climate risk. The research methodology is based on a scenario analysis, founded in empirical data. Data collection is conducted using qualitative interviews as well as a quantitative survey. The data material is analyzed using a Grounded Theory analysis, based on step-by-step coding. The qualitative codes are quantified to form measurable values, which can be used to rank the risk factors. The ranked values are further used in identifying critical uncertainties in the industry. The results from the qualitative analysis, combined with the standard deviation from the quantitative survey, presents; government requirements, strategy development and level of knowledge as the transformative risk factors for the real estate industry. Secondly, circular economy, transition risk and generational change have been identified as trends that will have a dynamic effect on the drivers over time. The risk factors then form the axes in a final 2x2 scenario matrix. Based on discussion of which risk factors are rational, it was concluded that if the real estate industry is to contribute to mitigate climate change, they must focus on governmental regulation and strategy development. These are risk factors that can increase the understanding of how climate decisions that the real estate industry makes today, can create opportunities and pitfalls in the future.