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dc.contributor.authorR. J. Nicholls, Zebedee
dc.contributor.authorMeinshausen, Malte
dc.contributor.authorLewis, Jared
dc.contributor.authorGieseke, Robert
dc.contributor.authorDommenget, Dietmar
dc.contributor.authorDorheim, Kalyn
dc.contributor.authorFan5, Chen-Shuo
dc.contributor.authorFuglestvedt, Jan S.
dc.contributor.authorGasser, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorGolüke, Ulrich
dc.contributor.authorGoodwin, Philip
dc.contributor.authorHartin, Corinne
dc.contributor.authorP. Hope, Austin
dc.contributor.authorKriegler, Elmar
dc.contributor.authorJ. Leach, Nicholas
dc.contributor.authorMarchegiani, Davide
dc.contributor.authorA. McBride, Laura
dc.contributor.authorQuilcaille, Yann
dc.contributor.authorRogelj, Joeri
dc.contributor.authorJ. Salawitch, Ross
dc.contributor.authorSamset, Bjørn Hallvard
dc.contributor.authorSandstad, Marit
dc.contributor.authorN. Shiklomanov, Alexey
dc.contributor.authorSkeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt
dc.contributor.authorJ. Smith, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Steven J.
dc.contributor.authorTanaka, Katsumasa
dc.contributor.authorTsutsui, Junichi
dc.contributor.authorXie, Zhiang
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-26T08:10:13Z
dc.date.available2021-04-26T08:10:13Z
dc.date.created2020-12-17T18:35:47Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.citationGeoscientific Model Development. 2020, 13 (11), 5175-5190.
dc.identifier.issn1991-959X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2739467
dc.description.abstractReduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1 ∘C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2 ∘C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23∘C(±0.12 ∘C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs
dc.language.isoeng
dc.titleReduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: Introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response
dc.typePeer reviewed
dc.typeJournal article
dc.description.versionpublishedVersion
dc.source.pagenumber5175-5190
dc.source.volume13
dc.source.journalGeoscientific Model Development
dc.source.issue11
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020
dc.identifier.cristin1861284
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2


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