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Effects of Insulting a Nation: An Empirical Study on the Impact of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize on Norwegian Exports

King, Max-Emil Mohn; Johansen, Tarjei
Master thesis
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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2687854
Date
2020
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  • Master of Science [963]
Abstract
This master thesis revisits the question of the e ects of Chinese trade restriction on Norwegian

exports following the awarding of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.

Our study contributes to earlier literature both by having access to more recent data as well as

by exploring the possibility of China's neighboring countries being used as intermediaries. Using

a di -in-di approach where the gravity equation serves as a baseline for the counterfactual, our

ndings suggest that the USD value of Norwegian exports to China in aggregates were slightly

lower than normal during the years of treatment, albeit not signi cantly so. At the same time,

exports to Vietnam and South Korea are found to have been much higher than predicted, the

abnormal increase matching to a large degree the timing of the Peace Prize. On disaggregated

levels, we nd that fresh salmon, frozen halibut, sh meal, and to a lesser degree of certainty

petroleum and various mechanical products were likely subjected to such treatment. The total

value of re-exported salmon is estimated to be up to USD 560 million and the value of halibut at

USD 70 million, making the direct `Peace Prize e ect' even smaller considering that these gures

were not recorded as imports to their most likely destination. Next, we apply the same framework

to study the outcome of implementing free trade agreements with Beijing, nding that Western

nations to do so increase their USD value of exports to China in aggregates by an order of 38 to

55 percent compared to their respective counterfactuals. We nevertheless conclude that this gain

comes at a high price, suggesting that the Norwegian delegates who are currently negotiating a

similar agreement with China should take care not to be kind to a fault.
Description
Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Economics - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2020
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Handelshøyskolen BI

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