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An empirical analysis of housing allowance recipients 2010- 2020 and a forecast of the near future

Jenssen, Henrik; Unhjem, Jon Peder Bakke
Master thesis
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2687278
Date
2020
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  • Master of Science [1525]
Abstract
This study seeks to identify the attributes of recipients of housing allowance in

Norway and formulate an econometric model capable of predicting the inflow of

new recipients of housing allowance in the near future. As the Norwegian State

Housing Bank receives funding via the state budget, such a model will help to

ensure that the bank receives proper funding.

The study finds that the number of applicants, recipients and new recipients has

decreased significantly over the past ten years, despite that the number of people

considered poor in Norway has increased. Moreover, the anticipated effect of

income and housing expenses are minimalised through the politically decided

income and approved housing expenses limits. Furthermore, we find the inflow of

new recipients to be a function of previous inflow, average housing expenses, age,

regulations, employment, and unemployment. The chosen model to forecast the

inflow is Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. Moreover, through an Impulse

Response Function (IRF), we find that Regulation and Employment are the two

variables that has the greatest effect on the inflow of new recipients. The accuracy

of the model is tested by comparing the VAR forecast to a forecast with linear

regression and actual values. Moreover, it is evaluated using mean error (ME),

mean percentage error (MPE) root mean squared errors (RMSE), mean absolute

errors (MAE), mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE).

The study concludes that given the available data, the VAR model is able to

produce satisfactory results, although the precision and the usage of external data

can be better.
Description
Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business Analytics- Handelshøyskolen BI, 2020
Publisher
Handelshøyskolen BI

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