A Comparison of Norwegian Business Cycle Indicators
Master thesis
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2686944Utgivelsesdato
2020Metadata
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- Master of Science [1612]
Sammendrag
This thesis investigates how different economic indicators can classify economic
recession and forecast GDP in Norway. The study focuses particularly on the
Financial News Index (FNI) and the financial crisis. In-sample evaluation is done
through Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and analyzed with the help of
AUROC score. Out-of-sample evaluation is done through simple linear regression
and analyzed with the help of Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE). With both in-sample and out-of-sample analyzes, our results
indicate that FNI should be considered as a highly valuable economic indicator in
the future.
Beskrivelse
Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Business - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2020