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Oil and Government Expenditures: The Short Run Versus the Long Run Effect

Bazo, Majd; Ahilathasan, Thivyesh
Master thesis
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2579402
Date
2018
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  • Master of Science [1117]
Abstract
Dependency on oil rents (the difference between oil revenue and production cost)

may not be sustainable over the short or the long run for oil dependent countries.

Oil rents fluctuate with the oil price which is known for being volatile. Hence,

more oil-dependent states may experience more volatile government expenditures.

However, it is not sure if oil rents have a positive or a negative effect on

government expenditures. In this paper, we try to identify short and a long run

relationship between oil rents and government expenditures between 99 oilproducing

countries from 1967 to 2015. We compare two models that assume

different relationships between the countries we analyze. One being a similar

long-run effect for all countries, and the other allowing for heterogeneity across

countries. Our results indicate that there exists a robust short-run relationship for

both models. The most robust results indicate a positive short-run relationship

between the growth rate of oil rents and the growth rate of government

expenditures. There is weak evidence for a long-run relationship between oil rents

and government expenditures.
Description
Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Economics - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2018
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Handelshøyskolen BI

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