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The Demographic Deficit

Cooley, Thomas F.; Henriksen, Espen
Journal article, Peer reviewed
Accepted version
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2495831
Date
2018
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  • Publikasjoner fra CRIStin - BI [650]
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Original version
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, 93(January), 45-62.   10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.005
Abstract
There has been a slowdown in growth in the world’s most advanced economies. In this paper we argue that changing demographics, in particular aging populations combined with increased life expectancy, may be part of the explanation for why we observe slower growth, falling interest rates and falling productivity growth. Using Japan and the U.S. in the years prior to the financial crises as a case study, we provide estimates of the growth deficit that arises from an aging cohort structure and increasing life expectancy. We also provide projections of the impact of predictable demographic changes on future growth in the U.S. and Japan.
Description
The accepted and peer reviewed manuscript to the article
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal
Journal of Monetary Economics

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