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Climate Leadership by Conditional Commitments

Helland, Leif; Hovi, Jon; Sælen, Håkon
Journal article, Peer reviewed
Accepted version
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2492565
Date
2018
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  • Publikasjoner fra CRIStin - BI [630]
  • Scientific articles [1334]
Original version
Oxford Economic Papers, 2018, 70(2), 417-442   10.1093/oep/gpx045
Abstract
Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, each Party sets its own mitigation target by submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) every five years. An important question is whether including conditional components in NDCs might enhance the agreement s effectiveness. We report the results of a closely controlled laboratory experiment based on a mixed sequential-simultaneous public good game with one leader and three followers that helps answer this question. The experiment investigates how two factors infl uence the effectiveness of leadership based on intrinsically conditional commitments. Measuring e¤ectiveness in terms of followers ' and total contributions, we find that it may help if the conditional promise is credible and if its implementation in fluences followers' welfare substantially. Importantly, however, for both factors we fi nd a signi cant effect only if the leader does not reap disproportionate gains from the group' s efforts. These fi ndings have important implications concerning the future success of the Paris agreement.
Description
The accepted and peer reviewed manuscript to the article
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Journal
Oxford Economic Papers

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