Back to the future - a meta-analysis of biases in innovation prediction

Abstract

The contribution of this paper is to review predictions of the adoption and diffusion of smart home technology, and investigate whether, and how researcher bias might influence such predictions. The background for the study is the tendency of researchers and authors to make errors in their prediction of new technology diffusion by overestimating the technology’s appeal, and underestimating the time perspective related to mainstream adoption. By reviewing relevant studies and looking at the factors that smart home predictions are based on, the authors intend to reveal whether the choice of emphasized factors, the use and interpretation of the chosen factors, and how these relate to adoption and diffusion of smart technology, are influenced by researcher biases. The findings indicate a clear bias where those who write about smart home diffusion, both belonging to academic literature and popular media, generally tend to be overly optimistic with regards to the technology’s appeal and mainstream diffusion, compared to the actual diffusion rate in real life.