Announcements of interest rate forecasts: Do policymakers stick to them?
Journal article, Peer reviewed
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- Scientific articles 
Original versionJournal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48(2016)5, 901-920 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12321
If central banks value the ex post accuracy of their published forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might influence the current policy rate. We explore if “forecast adherence” has affected monetary policy in New Zealand and Norway, where central banks have published their interest rate forecasts the longest. We derive and estimate policy rules with separate weights on past interest rate forecasts and find that they have explanatory power for current policy decisions, over and above their correlation with other conventional interest rate rule arguments.
The accepted and peer reviewed manuscript