Blar i Handelshøyskolen BI på emneord "Uncertainty"
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Components of Uncertainty
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2017, Working paper, 2017)Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identfication strategy to ... -
The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier
(HOFIMAR Working Paper Series; 1/2023, Working paper, 2023)We show how real and financial frictions amplify, prolong and propagate the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. We first use a novel instrumentation strategy to address endogeneity in estimating the impact of uncertainty ... -
The importance of unemployment risk for individual savings
(HOFIMAR Working Paper Series;6/2023, Working paper, 2023)In this paper we use a novel natural experiment and Norwegian tax data to quantify the causal impact of unemployment risk on individual savings. We show theoretically that higher unemployment risk increases liquid savings ... -
International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 12/2018;, Working paper, 2018-11)We estimate the effects of domestic and international sources of macroeconomic uncertainty in three small open economy (SOE) inflation targeting countries: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. To this end, we propose a structural ... -
Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-15)Vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility in both the conditional mean and variance are commonly used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. Despite their popularity, intensive computational ... -
On the Application of the Safety-II Concept in a Security Context
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)This paper presents an alternative and broader security risk perspective, incorporat-ing uncertainty, as a two-dimensional combination of (1) threat (Th) on value (Vl), (2) vulnerability (Vu) given coping capabilities (Cc), ... -
Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
(CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-13)We present a new stylized fact about the link between uncertainty and the term structure of interest rates: Unexpectedly heightened uncertainty elicits a lower, steeper, and flatter yield curve. This result is established ...