dc.contributor.author | Stoknes, Per Espen | |
dc.contributor.author | Aslaksen, Iulie | |
dc.contributor.author | Goluke, Ulrich | |
dc.contributor.author | Randers, Jørgen | |
dc.contributor.author | Garnåsjordet, Per Arild | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-02-15T14:30:17Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-02-15T14:30:17Z | |
dc.date.created | 2024-01-25T10:57:47Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Energy Policy. 2024, 184 . | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0301-4215 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3118030 | |
dc.description.abstract | The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country's economy, now facing financial climate risk and long-term declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sector-economic variables. We find that rebuilding by investing moderately in green offshore energy production could reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators for energy transitioning in producer countries. | |
dc.language.iso | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
dc.rights | Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no | * |
dc.title | Plausible futures for the Norwegian offshore energy sector: Business as usual, harvest or rebuild? | en_US |
dc.title.alternative | Plausible futures for the Norwegian offshore energy sector: Business as usual, harvest or rebuild? | en_US |
dc.type | Journal article | en_US |
dc.type | Peer reviewed | en_US |
dc.description.version | publishedVersion | en_US |
dc.source.volume | 184 | en_US |
dc.source.journal | Energy Policy | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113887 | |
dc.identifier.cristin | 2234281 | |
dc.source.articlenumber | 113887 | en_US |
cristin.ispublished | true | |
cristin.fulltext | original | |
cristin.qualitycode | 1 | |