Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach
Journal article, Peer reviewed
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Original versionThe American Economic Review. 2021, 111 (5), 1613-57. 10.1257/aer.20200208
We provide evidence of the stock market consumption wealth effect by using a local labor market analysis. An increase in local stock wealth driven by aggregate stock prices increases local employment and payroll in nontradable industries and in total, with no effect on employment in tradable industries. In a model of geographic heterogeneity in stock wealth, these responses imply an MPC of 3.2 cents per year and that a 20 percent increase in stock valuations, unless countered by monetary policy, increases the aggregate labor bill by at least 1.7 percent and aggregate hours by at least 0.7 percent two years after the shock.