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dc.contributor.authorAastveit, Knut Are
dc.contributor.authorGerdrup, Karsten R.
dc.contributor.authorJore, Anne Sofie
dc.contributor.authorThorsrud, Leif Anders
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-21T12:55:58Z
dc.date.available2012-08-21T12:55:58Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.identifier.issn1893-4811
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/95383
dc.description1/2010 and 2/2010 was published as CAMAR Working Paper Series (ISSN 1892-2198). From 2011 the series' name changed to CAMP Working Paper Series.no_NO
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined separately. Then, the nowcasts from the three model classes are combined into a single predictive density. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for the evaluation period 1990Q2-2010Q3. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP increase almost monotonically as new information arrives during the quarter. While the best performing model class is changing during the quarter, the density nowcasts from our combination framework is always performing well both in terms of logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.no_NO
dc.language.isoengno_NO
dc.publisherBI Norwegian Business Schoolno_NO
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCAMP Working Paper Series;1/2011
dc.subjectDensity combinationno_NO
dc.subjectForecast densitiesno_NO
dc.subjectForecast evaluationno_NO
dc.subjectMonetary policyno_NO
dc.subjectNowcastingno_NO
dc.subjectReal-time datano_NO
dc.titleNowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approachno_NO
dc.typeWorking paperno_NO
dc.source.pagenumber43 pagesno_NO


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