Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP): Nye registreringer
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Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2020, Working paper, 2020-06)For a developed market economies, the corona crisis is a new type of crisis, but this crisis has parallels to economies at other times, and to crises at other places. We discuss some mechanisms from the traditional macro ... -
Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices
(CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2020, Working paper, 2020-07-02)We study the importance of time-varying volatility in modelling hourly electricity prices when fundamental drivers are included in the estimation. This allows us to contribute to the literature of large Bayesian VARs by ... -
Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2020, Working paper, 2020-06-25)Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-though of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ... -
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2020, Working paper, 2020-03)We search for leading determinants of financial instability in Norway using a signaling approach, and examine how these respond to a monetary policy shock with the use of structural VAR models. We find that the wholesale ... -
Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2020, Working paper, 2020-02-02)While economists have focused on the effect of mean temperatures on mortality, climate scientists have emphasized that global warming might not only lead to an increase in mean temperatures, but can potentially also affect ... -
Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;11/2019, Working paper, 2019-12)This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially ... -
OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment
(CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)The market behavior nationalized oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is starkly time-varying. I rationalize OPEC's behavior in an infinitely repeated game of Cournot competition with ... -
Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)We estimate a regime-switching DSGE model with a banking sector to explain incomplete and asymmetric interest rate pass-through, especially in the presence of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. The model is ... -
Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2019, Working paper, 2019-11-18)In two recent papers, Kilian and Zhou (2019) and Kilian (2019) have criticized Bjørnland, Nordvik, and Rohrer (2017), arguing that our finding of a large price elasticity of output for shale producers is not credible. We ... -
Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media
(CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-16)We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage explained by central bank ... -
A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2019, Working paper, 2019-10-12)This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the economic repercussions of cryptocurrency. We assume that cryptocurrency offers an alternative currency option to government currency ... -
On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;05/2019, Working paper, 2019-06)One of the most important research questions in climate economics is the relationship between temperatures and human mortality. This paper develops a procedure that enables the use of machine learning for estimating the ... -
Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2019, Working paper, 2019-06-18)Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have ... -
News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-23)We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, ... -
New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-08)China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that ... -
Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2019, Working paper, 2019-01-16)We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, ... -
On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)We investigate the relationship between world oil markets and China's macroeconomic performance over the past two decades. Our analysis starts by proposing a simple method for disentangling real economic activity stemming ... -
Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models.
(CAMP Working Paper Series;13/2018, Working paper, 2018-12-11)We study what happens to identified shocks and to dynamic responses when the structural model features q disturbances and m endogenous variables, q ≤ m, but only m1 < q variables are used in the empirical model. Identified ... -
International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 12/2018;, Working paper, 2018-11)We estimate the effects of domestic and international sources of macroeconomic uncertainty in three small open economy (SOE) inflation targeting countries: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. To this end, we propose a structural ... -
Growth with Age-Dependent Preferences
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 14/2018;, Working paper, 2018-12-10)We study the consequences of age-dependent preferences for economic growth and structural change in a two-sector model with overlapping generations and nondimishing returns to capital. Savings and accumulation rates depend ...