Viser treff 21-40 av 129

    • Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending 

      Juelsrud, Ragnar E.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)
      We investigate the impact of macro-related uncertainty on bank lending in Norway. We show that an increase in general macroeconomic uncertainty reduces bank lending. Importantly, however, we show that this effect is largely ...
    • Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers 

      Ellingsen, Jon; Espegren, Caroline (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2022, Working paper, 2022-12-01)
      We estimate the earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers using a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set from Norway, coupled with an event-study framework of the oil price drop in 2014. Displacement leads ...
    • Monetary policy when export revenues drop 

      Bergholt, Drago; Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2022, Working paper, 2022-11)
      We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, ...
    • Local economic development and oil discoveries 

      Hamang, Jonas Hveding (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2022, Working paper, 2022-09-15)
      In this paper I use data on the location of all historic petroleum discoveries onshore to establish a new stylized fact: Economically developed areas are significantly more likely (about five percentage points) to contain ...
    • Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia 

      Skretting, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2022, Working paper, 2022-08-11)
      I construct a novel dataset to investigate the effects of oil income in regions of Russia. My data combines regional level data on oil endowments and a wide range of economic series for 85 geographical regions of Russia. ...
    • Quantifying supply-side climate policies 

      Ahlvik, Lassi; Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Hamang, Jonas Hveding; Harding, Torfinn (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2022, Working paper, 2022-02)
      What are the effects of supply-side climate policies? We use global firm-level data to estimate the impact of 130 oil-tax reforms between 2000 and 2019 on oil production, exploration and discoveries. Higher taxes are found ...
    • The household effects of mortgage regulation 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger; Wold, Ella Getz (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2021, Working paper, 2021-12)
      We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on child and parent household balance sheets, highlighting important trade-offs in terms of financial vulnerability. Using Norwegian tax data, we show that loan-to-value caps ...
    • The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Nguyen, Bao H.; Tran, Trung Duc (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2021, Working paper, 2021-11-01)
      Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand as a composite shock, known as storage demand shocks, due to difficulties in identifying these distinct ...
    • The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2021, Working paper, 2021-09-11)
      Shale oil producers respond positively and significantly to favourable oil price signals. This finding is established using a novel proprietary data set consisting of more than 200,000 shale wells across ten U.S. states ...
    • Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Koop, Gary; Poon, Aubrey (CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-15)
      Vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility in both the conditional mean and variance are commonly used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. Despite their popularity, intensive computational ...
    • Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie L.; van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-01)
      We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...
    • The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy 

      Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-27)
      We show that under fairly general conditions, the combination of (i) competitive markets, (ii) free entry, and (iii) democracy is inconsistent with allocative efficiency. This fundamental impossibility result, which has ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2020, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility ...
    • OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets 

      Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Hvinden, Even Soltvedt (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. ...
    • Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes 

      Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;11, Working paper, 2020-12-29)
      We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regime-switching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes ...
    • Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies 

      Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2020, Working paper, 2020-12-03)
      The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ...
    • Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia 

      Cross, Jamie; Zhang, Bo; Guo, Na (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2020, Working paper, 2020-11-18)
      We investigate whether a class of trend models with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result ...
    • News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting 

      Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2020, Working paper, 2020-10-08)
      Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ...
    • Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19 

      Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen; Larsen, Erling Røed; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-17)
      We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and bid-by-bid auction data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lock-down on March 12, and the ...
    • Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting 

      Iacopini, Matteo; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-01)
      This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, ...