• OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment 

      Hvinden, Even Comfort (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)
      The market behavior nationalized oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is starkly time-varying. I rationalize OPEC's behavior in an infinitely repeated game of Cournot competition with ...
    • OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets 

      Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Hvinden, Even Soltvedt (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. ...
    • Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations 

      Pettenuzzo, Davide; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We extend the density combination approach of Billio et al. (2013) to feature combination weights that depend on the past forecasting performance of the individual models entering the combination through a utility-based ...
    • Petro Populism 

      Matsen, Egil; Natvik, Gisle J.; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We aim to explain petro populism|the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income politicians need to remain in office over time. Hence, even a rent-seeking ...
    • Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Bank Deposits in Tax Havens 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels; Lassen, David Dreyer; Paltseva, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that ...
    • Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time–Series 

      Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3, Working paper, 2018-02)
      Cryptocurrencies have recently gained a lot of interest from investors, central banks and governments worldwide. The lack of any form of political regu- lation and their market far from being “efficient”, require new forms ...
    • The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2021, Working paper, 2021-09-11)
      Shale oil producers respond positively and significantly to favourable oil price signals. This finding is established using a novel proprietary data set consisting of more than 200,000 shale wells across ten U.S. states ...
    • Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis 

      Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2023, Working paper, 2023-08-03)
      This paper extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. By means of synthetic and real data experiments it is ...
    • Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting 

      Iacopini, Matteo; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-01)
      This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, ...
    • Quantifying supply-side climate policies 

      Ahlvik, Lassi; Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Hamang, Jonas Hveding; Harding, Torfinn (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2022, Working paper, 2022-02)
      What are the effects of supply-side climate policies? We use global firm-level data to estimate the impact of 130 oil-tax reforms between 2000 and 2019 on oil production, exploration and discoveries. Higher taxes are found ...
    • Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie L.; van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-01)
      We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...
    • Residential investment and recession predictability 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andr K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)
      We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ...
    • Residential investment and recession predictability 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andre K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)
      We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ...
    • Risky news and credit market sentiment 

      Labonne, Paul; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;14/2023, Working paper, 2023-12-14)
      The nonlinear nexus between financial conditions indicators and the conditional distribution of GDP growth has recently been challenged. We show how one can use textual economic news combined with a shallow Neural Network ...
    • The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Nguyen, Bao H.; Tran, Trung Duc (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2021, Working paper, 2021-11-01)
      Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand as a composite shock, known as storage demand shocks, due to difficulties in identifying these distinct ...
    • Sectorial interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies 

      Bergholt, Drago; Sveen, Tommy (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Existing DSGE models are not able to reproduce the observed influence of international business cycles on small open economies. We construct a two-sector New Keynesian model to address this puzzle. The set-up takes into ...
    • Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds? 

      Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      Many natural-resource-abundant countries have established petroleum funds as part of their strategy to manage their resource wealth. This paper examines reasons that such funds may be established, discusses how these funds ...
    • Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models 

      Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Papers Series;4/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      In this paper we take three well known Sigma Point Filters, namely the Unscented Kalman Filter, the Divided Difference Filter, and the Cubature Kalman Filter, and extend them to allow for a very general class of dynamic ...
    • Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Rohrer, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We analyse if output exibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, we ask to what extent shale oil producers respond to price incentives by changing completion of new wells as well as oil ...
    • Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2019, Working paper, 2019-11-18)
      In two recent papers, Kilian and Zhou (2019) and Kilian (2019) have criticized Bjørnland, Nordvik, and Rohrer (2017), arguing that our finding of a large price elasticity of output for shale producers is not credible. We ...